A year of gains and losses: How the 2012 drought affected Wisconsin agriculture

Chad Myar grows corn and soybeans and houses 44,000 chickens on his farm 20 minutes north of Madison. In the wake of the severe 2012 drought, Myar said his farm was “doing all right.”

His yields of corn and soybeans declined by 30 to 40 percent because of the drought, yet his poultry and eggs generated consistent revenue.

Wisconsin farmers and residents are still exploring the widespread and lingering effects of last year’s drought. And yet, according to an estimate from the 2013 Status of Wisconsin Agriculture report, released by the Department of Agricultural & Applied Economics at UW-Madison in January, the state actually reached its second highest net farm income on record last year.

Farm revenue in the state had been on thpe rise for the last 20 years. The Status of Wisconsin Agriculture report estimates that Wisconsin farmers netted $3 billion in 2012, which is 19 percent down from record high revenue in 2011.

This seemingly optimistic result masks the severe consequences the drought inflicted on the state.

Explore the timeline to see how the drought developed in 2012

Crop production decreased substantially last year, according to the Status of Wisconsin Agriculture report. Corn production dropped by 16.7 percent compared to 2011. Soybean yield also decreased by 16 percent.

However, this year’s revenue in crops in Wisconsin was similar to last year’s, said agricultural economist Ed Jesse, the editor of the report. Because of a national shortage of crops resulting from the widespread drought conditions, prices rose and made up for the lesser yield. In addition, crop insurance subsidies from the government offset some farmers’ loss.

The drought condition and its consequences varied across the regions.

“The southern part in the state was much worse in terms of reduction of yields on crops,” said Jesse, while some areas in the north enjoyed adequate rainfall and record crops.

Wisconsin did manage record milk production last year, a 4.1 percent increase over 2011, according to the report. The growth in milk production reflects higher production per cow and a slight increase in the number of cows in the state. The intense sunshine last year made feed prices rise substantially but also produced higher quality hay for the cows.

“We are getting more of our cows in larger herds that use superior management practices, and we are losing herds of smaller size that typically don't get high milk production per cow,” said Jesse.

Compared to crop and dairy farmers whose losses were somewhat compensated either by higher prices or production, some vegetables and fruit cultivators suffered heavily in the drought.

“If you were growing the vegetables without irrigation, there was practically no crop,” said Jesse.

Apple production dropped by 60 percent and tart cherry production by 90 percent.

“On the fruit side, we had unusual weather in spring,” said Jesse, referring to high temperatures in March that caused apple and cherry trees to blossom early then suffer from hard frost in April.

Revenue, cost, and net income on Wisconsin farms, 2010-2012

Wisconsin farmers earned an estimated net revenue of $3 billion, with gross revenue even higher than 2011. Much higher costs, especially for livestock feed, resulted in a drop in net income from 2011 by about $800 million.

Last year's extreme weather also affected industries that heavily rely on agriculture. Many ethanol plants in the state, which utilize corn, had to shut down temporarily or run under limited capacity because of crop shortages in the area, according to the report.

John Young, the director of the State Climatology Office and professor of atmospheric science at UW-Madison, worries that the drought may have a lasting impact on more than just agricultural production.

There are two kinds of drought, said Young. Agricultural drought reflects short-term weather conditions, for instance over the course of a few weeks, and impacts crop production. Hydrological drought reflects much longer-term weather, taking place over a few months, and has far-reaching influences on groundwater, reservoirs, lake levels, and so on.

Since the 2012 drought covered a large geographical area and lasted months, both agricultural and hydrological drought set in.

It seems that the prolonged, above normal temperatures also led to excessive loss of soil moisture by evaporation.

“A simple feedback loop can work for droughts,” said Young. High temperature leads to more evaporation and a lack of soil moisture. As the soil goes dry, the solar radiation tends to heat the air more than evaporate water, which in turn leads to less rainfall and aggravates the soil dryness.

Young believes that the warmth in March 2012 that set up the drought was intensified by the trend of global climate change. However, it is still uncertain how global climate change will specifically influence Wisconsin agriculture in the future.

“If we thought every summer in Wisconsin was going to be dryer … you would have to change your crops,” said Young. “I personally don’t think that it’s clear from climate models that we can say this drought is going to be common in Wisconsin in the future.”

According to the Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts, the global warming trend will have a mixed impact on Wisconsin agriculture.

On one hand, rising temperature will result in longer growing seasons and more rainfall in summer. On the other hand, it is also accompanied by more extreme weather swings, like droughts and heavy rains.

“The uncertainties are so great,” said Jesse. He said he doesn’t have good advice for Wisconsin farmers, “except hope and pray we don’t have another drought.”

“We plan the coming year like we plan the other years,” said Madison-area farmer Myar, who didn’t think he would make many changes to the farm, “we are already actively purchasing our seeds and fertilizer.”

While most of the area in the United States affected by last year’s drought will still suffer the effects of prolonged dryness this spring, the Climate Prediction Center anticipates adequate precipitation in the Wisconsin area in the next three months, relieving former drought conditions.