Last year, Wisconsinites were bombarded with political news and messaging, as is typical in this battleground state during any presidential election. However, a recent judicial ruling overturning Act 10 has increased the significance of an already highly anticipated Wisconsin Supreme Court race, ensuring that charged political advertisements won’t be going anywhere in 2025.
On December 2, Dane County Circuit Court Judge Jacob Frost issued a ruling striking down major portions of Act 10 on the grounds that they treated similar groups of public workers differently in violation of the Wisconsin Constitution’s equal protection clause.
Act 10 was a controversial law introduced by former Gov. Scott Walker in 2011. The Act, also known as the “Wisconsin Budget Repair Bill,” attempted to address the state’s budget deficit by restricting collective bargaining rights of public sector employees to reduce state spending.
The law sparked fierce statewide debates about union rights and culminated in substantial, weekslong protests at the Capitol while the Legislature voted and ultimately passed the bill.
Judge Frost’s December ruling in the lawsuit challenging Act 10, filed in 2023 by public sector labor groups and union leaders, will bring those same debates back to the forefront of Wisconsin’s political discourse and be a major focal point of the state Supreme Court race until Election Day on April 1, according to Michael Childers, a UW–Madison professor of labor education.
“The seat that’s open is currently held by what’s perceived as one of the liberal justices, so this election is going to be everything,” said Childers. “The winner of this election will likely be the deciding vote when the Court does take up this matter.”
Once the new justice takes their seat on the bench, the Court will decide whether Act 10 violates the Wisconsin Constitution.
The argument for a violation stems from the Act’s exemptions for certain public safety employees, such as police officers and firefighters. Those groups maintained their collective bargaining rights, whereas other public employees, including teachers, were subjected to the most restrictive provisions of the law.
Judge Frost “found that there was no rational way to segregate out police and fire from the rest of the public sector workers in Wisconsin without violating the equal protection clause,” said Childers.
This will be Wisconsin’s second high profile Supreme Court race in the last few years. In 2023, Janet Protasiewicz, the liberal-leaning candidate, beat her conservative-leaning opponent, Daniel Kelly, by a 10-point margin in that closely-watched and contentious race.
Protasiewicz’s victory flipped the Court’s balance in favor of the liberal justices in the same way the 2025 race could shift the balance of control back to conservatives.
These consequential races have come with an especially high price tag. The 2023 Supreme Court race was the most expensive judicial election in U.S. history, and many believe even more money could flow into the upcoming race.
“The two candidates who are in the race have already raised more than the candidates two years ago at this time,” said UW–Madison political science professor Barry Burden. “If we stay on pace, 2025 will beat the spending record set in 2023.”
Unlike 2023, when four different candidates ran in the primary, the primary for the 2025 race was cancelled in early January after only two candidates entered the race, according to Ballotpedia.
The candidates, Susan Crawford and Brad Schimel, are running for a ten-year term to fill the seat of incumbent Justice Ann Walsh Bradley, who is retiring at age 73 after serving 30 years on the state’s highest bench.
Both candidates are technically running as independents, but it is understood that Crawford leans liberal and Schimel leans conservative, according to Burden.
“I think the candidates are going to be pretty bold about talking about issues, but they’re going to dance around actually weighing in on cases to avoid getting in ethics trouble,” said Burden. “Their affiliations with the parties are so blatant at this point there’s no hiding that they’re really partisans.”
Independent judicial candidates publicly voicing opinions on partisan state issues is a newer trend, according to Burden.
“The Supreme Court is more polarized in its voting patterns. It is weighing in on all kinds of big issues in the last five to ten years that the Court used to not weigh in on,” said Burden.
“The Court just became a more visible institution for the public, and hot button issues got settled there. It has accelerated over the last six years or so while we’ve had divided government because the Democratic governor and Republican Legislature aren’t able to agree on much,” said Burden.
Frost’s Act 10 ruling is currently being appealed by Republican lawmakers in the 2nd District Court of Appeals, but Frost expects the case to go up to the Supreme Court afterwards, according to a January court document.
“If you thought you were done watching election ads, you’re going to be seeing more all the way up until April,” said Childers.
